Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Ascent Las Vegas
decks
9
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
66
28-31-7
overall winrate
47.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.3%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1301
· median 1271
· range 1076–1526
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1218
Q3 1417
1694
22% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
22% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 8 | 1-5-2 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 39.6% | -5.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 48.8% | -0.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.0% | +6.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +2.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.4% | +7.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.8% | +5.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 18.0% | -23.9 |
| Water Fractal | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 42.9% | -4.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.0% | -7.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 39.9% | -5.8 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 46.3% | -2.8 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Chess | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -4.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Norm Silvie | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 32.9% | -27.3 |
| Wind Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
